Tesla's Cybertruck, launched in late 2019 and first delivered in November 2023, saw a dramatic sales drop in the US in 2025, plummeting nearly 48% year-over-year to just over 20,000 units after nearly 39,000 in 2024. This makes it the worst-performing EV model in the US market by sales decline. Meanwhile, China's EV industry surges ahead, with 2025 passenger car sales exceeding 30.1 million units and new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration surpassing 51%, setting the stage for a competitive 2026 amid global challenges and innovations like GAC's eVTOL breakthroughs.
Tesla Cybertruck's US Sales Collapse
The Cybertruck's hype has faded fast. After a strong 2024 debut year with ~39,000 US deliveries, 2025 sales halved to slightly over 20,000 units, with Q4 managing just over 4,100—far below 2024's Q4 ~13,000. This 48% YoY drop crowns it the US EV with the steepest decline, per recent institutional data reported by TechWeb.
Key factors include:
- Market saturation in the premium electric pickup segment.
- Intensifying competition from rivals like Ford's F-150 Lightning and Rivian's R1T.
- Broader US EV demand slowdown amid high interest rates and charging infrastructure gaps.
This stumble highlights vulnerabilities in Tesla's single-model reliance for the pickup category, contrasting sharply with diversified Chinese EV strategies.
China's EV Market: From Boom to Strategic Depth
China's auto sector hit a record 30.1 million passenger car sales in 2025 (first 11 months), with NEV penetration at 51%+. Chinese brands dominate domestically and lead global exports. Yet, as '15th Five-Year Plan' kicks off in 2026, the focus shifts from scale to 'stock competition'—fighting over existing market share amid 'involution' and razor-thin profits (industry rate at 4.4%).
Profit Polarization Table (2025 Front 11 Months):
| Category | Revenue Growth | Profit Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese OEMs (Head) | +8.1%+ | Strong profits via scale, supply chain |
| New Forces (e.g., NIO) | Varies | Many turn profitable |
| Foreign Giants (VW, Toyota) | Stable/large | Sharp declines from EV shift |
Value is migrating to batteries, smart driving, and AI cockpits—areas where Chinese firms excel.
2026 Trends: Tech Moats and New Frontiers
Expect 'structural growth' via:
- NEV高端化: 30万+ RMB segment at 58% penetration; half-solid-state batteries for 1,000km+ range, 800V ultra-fast charging.
- 智能化: End-to-end AI driving (no-map NOA), L4 autonomy.
- 细分市场: Boom in off-road SUVs, MPVs, big 6-seaters—prioritizing 'quality-price' over pure affordability.
GAC's GOVY AirCab exemplifies innovation: 2,000+ orders worth 3.3B RMB, 6-axis/12-rotor eVTOL with 30km electric range, 120km/h cruise, L4 autonomy (500+ TOPS), and 25-min full charge. Priced under 1.68M RMB, it's set for 2026 delivery post-certification.
Global Implications: Why This Matters
Cybertruck's flop underscores US EV growing pains, while China's export dominance faces headwinds: EU CBAM tariffs, US battery rules, SE Asia's localization mandates (e.g., Thailand's 1:1.5 export credits). Chinese firms must pivot to local production, brand-building, and tech exports. This 'system competition' era favors those with resilient supply chains and ecosystem plays (software, services, data)—positioning China to lead from auto giant to powerhouse.
Looking Ahead: China's 2026 Leap
2026 demands a 'sell better, not just more' mindset. Headliners like BYD, NIO, XPeng, and Zeekr will leverage tech matrices to capture premium slices, while eVTOLs signal mobility's future. Tesla's woes? A wake-up call. For Chinese EVs, it's fuel for global dominance—if they navigate trade barriers smartly.
